Scary stories~Best left to Hollywood.

     With apologies to politicians, partisans, and oodles of professional and amateur journalist/blogger types, I don't buy into the many end of the world scenarios being dangled in front of me pre-election day.

     A number of scenarios are playing out and it will be up to Canadians to decide how they want the country to run over the next months and years. What is clear is a lot of people are coming to the realization it isn't difficult to vote, that voting is important, and they are thoroughly enjoying the idea they actually have some power for a change.

     In the last few days you can expect plenty of drama flying in all directions. I put some thought into it and I've come up with my own scenario, which, is really a concoction of many years of observation, mixed with way too much reading while watching every news program going, following twitter, all jumbled up in my big bag of things I think about and I will guarantee this scenario is valid for at least another 6 hours or so.

     Based on my own knowledge of things political, conservatives took out a very large hammer this morning and firmly smashed the "break glass in case of emergency" thingie. This will result in a flood of John Baird-like hollering about all the world ending events that are about to rain down upon us.

     The conservative strategy will require us to carry steel umbrellas for the next few days as they throw every scare tactic, including the kitchen sink, at us. You won't have to listen hard to hear the world is coming to an end. The banks will fail. Cows will not give milk anymore. Provinces will float out into the ocean. Raging camels will overrun the Arctic. Your children will have to give candy to adults on Halloween. You get the idea. The only thing they can do now is try to: a) scare people into voting FOR them, or, b) scare people into NOT voting. Key message will be anything that remotely sounds frightening.

     This is the payback for their arrogance. Ignoring Canadians, ignoring reporters, ignoring how distasteful Canadians found issues like G8/20 porkbarrelling, the hiring of convicts to top positions, appointing senators charged with fraud, trying to ruin the life of Helena Guergis and not even speaking her name, let alone apologizing for what they'd done when it came to light the astounding charges that were 100% unsubstantiated. I'm not the only one who almost lost my lunch when, in a single day, the party wrote to Elections Canada asking student votes in Guelph be voided, then congratulated Elections Canada publicly when their request was denied. Come on. This doesn't even touch on dozens and dozens of examples of poor judgement, someone (bit players) getting fired every day, the list makes me gag. As it does for many Canadians who are tired of this garbage. All along they have smugly believed we would just ignore all of that, we'd ignore their record, we'd buy into their "violent torpedo of sound bites". It's not too late for these people to save themselves from themselves, however, since every single day has brought us another new, ugly conservative revelation, they've removed the rose coloured glasses a bit late.

     So the question upon us. Harper must go, where should I mark my 'X'?

     I guess since Jack Layton is the flavour of the day, I should start there. While he looked as though he was off to a slow start, Jack is the current Justin Bieber of Canadian Politics. I'm not sorry people are running away from Stephen Harper, I just hope they are sure of themselves where they stop. Now, before I get wildly attacked by NDP supporters, I'm not going to launch into some kind of a vote for Jack is a vote for Karl Marx or something so stupid. That tactic is best left to conservative idealogues.

     I believe in social programs designed to better the society I live in. I am in a position and prepared to pay to provide certain services, even if I don't use, or may never need them. Someone else does. I'm ok with caring about others, even the ones I don't know. One thing I do know, people who vote NDP can count on at least having a leader who will listen and work with others.

     I do still have some serious reservations about the NDP. In my opinion, they are still unable to develop a program to advance their agenda in a way that doesn't rock confidence in the economic fundamentals of the country. No, Canada will not be mysteriously bankrupted overnight due to some mad give-everyone-everything spending spree, rather, when one scrutinizes some of what is being put forth, as popular as it may seem in the heat of the moment, it gives me troubling pause.

     As populist a promise as it is, the credit card relief idea should worry you. Aside from the unwanted side effect of capital fleeing to somewhere profits aren't being cut is part of the equation, leading banks to have less money to lend, but the bigger problem is they will find other fees, rates, etc to recoup those losses. There are ways to get relief for families but regulating it is asking for more trouble than any Canadian really wants.

     Today Jack is talking about regulating gas prices. This will be seen as a direct attack on the oil and gas industry, which is super in the eyes of the average joe but once again very bad policy when you look at the wider ramifications, not the least of which is the cost to the environment of artificially low gas prices which lead to higher consumption.

     Those are two examples of policy that is not mature enough to govern this country. This is almost Anti-Harper to the max, without the criminals of course. Harper has tried to move us to an uncomfortable right-hand corner of the room and my only fear of the NDP is they will just shift me uncomfortably to the left-hand corner of the room.

      I'm going to make no secret about it. I am not happy with any of the existing parties. None of these people show me a vision of Canada other than replacing one colour party with another. In order to maintain a sense of stability, and remove this 5 year stain on our country that has been "The Harper Government", I believe one needs to go to the polls on election day and vote for the Liberal candidate. This rids us of Harper and his stable crew of convict yes men (women to the back of the bus) and does not set the financial community to alarm.

     I don't say the NDP will never be ready to lead, I don't know that. I know they can't at this juncture. Were I to offer advice, it would be to start in the centre and introduce yourself to the world. Don't announce yourself with an earthquake that could take a lengthy period of adjustment that would ultimately hurt the people who trusted you.

     I've found it difficult to write this. I like Jack Layton, I like the many friends I have who are NDP members and supporters. I just have too many red flags to justify taking the chance.

     I won't say the Liberals have always been the best. Perhaps people don't find their message inspiring enough. I tend to believe we've been so poisoned by the centuries long Ignatieff attack we may be trained not to hear his message. Partly his fault for believing we're adults and want to hear someone talk when really we're towel waving morons who want to hear the loudest shouter.

     Nevertheless, I, Mr Bigpicguy, endorse the Liberals in this election and on May 3rd I am rounding up a posse that wants to change the game, not just the players.

     I'll end this diatribe by urging you to elect anyone but Harper. We will still be alive on May 3rd and 10 times more Canadian than we were the day before. It may be the end of the Harperian calendar, it won't be the end of the world. I just choose to choose some stability while my plan to change it all gathers steam!

     PS~if you're reading this is BC please do something to get Elizabeth May elected so we can actually hear what she has to say.

My Election View 2011

     In a few days it will be over and Canadians will have elected the players who will provide the drama we will refer to as the 41st parliament of Canada. Congratulations, Canadians have their day.

     It's an honour really. Many Canadians, mostly the youth of the nation, gave their lives to give you the opportunity to choose who you want to run your country, rather than be told who should run your country. The one day in our country when a homeless person has the same voice as a party leader, a CEO, or  billionaire. Your day of power, so don't forsake it, don't allow friends and family to forsake it. Don't just vote but do all you can to encourage everyone to vote, no matter how they intend to mark their ballot, it's just that important.

     I make no secret I chose to vote for the Liberal candidate in this particular election. I think they have a platform I can live with, one that changes the priorities to more of what I like about Canada. The idea we can help each other. I also know the liberal party not only created the conditions that allowed Canada to ride out the worst of a bad situation, the same minds that made Canada the envy of the world are still Liberals. I've also been impressed to learn of the intelligence, passion and committment of Michael Ignatieff. As a man it would be difficult to equal the amount of dignity he has handled himself with in the face of years of personal attacks, attacks on his family, his wife, his integrity. I've listened to a man who speaks, not from a teleprompter, not from notes, but from a sense of disgust at what Canada has become, and a sense of amazement that Canadians don't seem to realize that very slowly, quietly, the society we have always been so proud of is changing and by the time we open our eyes we will not even recognize ourselves in the mirror.

     As for Stephen Harper, what more can I say about this man. I, being engaged, knew enough about this man in 1995 I realized his ideology was very different, that he is a very shrewd and tightly controlled man who has a plan to remake Canada into a very different country. If you look at his pre-government record, what he has done since he came to power (not to mention how he came to power), and the unbelievably questionable people who populate the highest positions within his inner circle I find it very difficult to imagine a sensible person could support this man. One can argue the local candidate is a superhero, but in this conservative party he's lower than a nothing unless Stephen Harper says so. What he says goes. Cross this man and you will feel wrath you never imagined. He doesn't care if he ruins your credibility, your reputation, your family or your life depending on his level of hate at the time. He is unmistakably a man driven by his hate of everyone who would dare to oppose his views. The most vitriolic of his hate is directed toward his opposition. I've dealt with people like Stephen Harper in my professional life. They don't intimidate me. I have no problem staring them down or telling them exactly how much value I place on their opinion. No matter how much they'd love to think they are better than me, sadly for them, they're not. The small-minded, small-hearted of the world instill no fear in my heart. Garbage is garbage no matter what title they hold or how big their bank account is. No human is better than any other and too bad for Stephen Harper, the emporer has no clothes. You might scare others, to me you're a playground bully, a glorified punk. I'd had more than enough of you, Mr. Gotti wannabe, the teflon is gone, and now we know you have a fondness for fraud it's high time we kicked your ass to High River.

     Jack. Love ya. Hope you do very well. Every policy you have will need to be blunted, if you don't realize that you're not yet smart enough to be PM, but congrats, the NDP is getting there. I'm sorry you haven't concentrated your efforts more on what kind of government Harper has given us, especially right now when more people are listening to you. The election really is more important than whether you can relace liberals, it's about ridding ourselves of a very bad government. By the way, the credit card thing is false hope and not well thought out. Reality is, as PM you can still help people without punishing the market which hurts people's retirement savings. It's only a free ride until the scrutiny hits.

     I sincerely hope Elizabeth May gets a seat to add that refreshing voice. Unfortunately the name Green Party associates them with a fringe that got a bad name early in their history elsewhere and you could provide policies that would create utopia in the country and good luck getting a seat. Sorry, I just try to speak the truth. Whether the truth seems right or wrong it's still the truth.

     No matter what the outcome of this election, I made a promise to my 23 year old daughter. That once the election ends I will start working to drag our 19th century system into the future. No matter how many elections we have, no matter who we elect, we have structural problems with the way our democracy works and many changes need to be made so democracy becomes relevant to every citizen. I will be seeking all kinds of Canadians to work with me and will be inviting those who want a vision for their children's future to dialogue with me to create a firm vision of the Canada we want. My promise is for concrete change by 2019.

     In the meantime. My endorsement is, vote for your Liberal candidate for change we can realistically afford. NDP policies are good, but currently unattainable and the credit card thing may be cute but will cause havoc in financial markets where the medicine could end up far worse than the cure.

     As always, try to examine the big picture. Make up your own mind and vote. Please comment on my blog I appreciate all comments for and against.

     If you're interested in engagement you can follow me on twitter @bigpicguy or email me bigpicguy@hotmail.ca thanks for sharing a piece of my mind.

What really happens after the vote

     I'm intensely interested in politics. Not just federal politics, but provincial, municipal and yes, foreign politics. I'm interested in how ideology shapes politics and of the theoretical basis of the many different systems in play and those proposed for the future.

     Political campaigns are the absolute worst place to try to learn anything about politics. They're filled with all the things that cloud reasoned attempts to educate oneself. Rhetoric, partisanship, outside influences with vested interests, media that is no longer purely objective, opinion, innuendo, truth, lies, ugly smear tactics, subliminal attacks, strategy and on and on. It does not resemble real politics as is practised on a day to day basis between election periods. For those who pay little attention to politics, elections provide about a month of total confusion and bombardment that often has them throwing up their hands and foresaking the polls on election day.

     I believe democracy is still the best system we have, although very little attention has been paid to moving democracy from somewhere in the 1800's to what it could be in the 21st century. I'd like to think of this blog is a place to incite thought and encourage lifelong learning. You don't need to go to school to learn, you just need a few tips on research and methods of dealing with conflicting information. Since you're accessing this online, you have internet access and a search engine, a good start.

     There is something of utmost importance when a democratic nation has an election. Your vote is critical. It's not, as some would argue, that if you don't vote you don't have a right to complain. You still pay plenty of taxes, you are still a citizen, of course you have a right to complain. Your vote is of critical importance because it is the only time you hold absolute power. The only time politicians fear anything you have to say. It is the single opportunity for you to show your agreement with what your government is doing, or change direction. I believe every Canadian should value the vote that was paid for with the blood of millions of men and woman who fought and died so tyranny would not impose itself upon future generations.

     So let me try to give a bit of a primer on Canadian style democracy, just to foster a bit of understanding in a confusing flurry of electio-babble.

     On May 2/2011, Canadians will decide the formation of the next House of Commons. We'll go to the polls in our various ridings and at the end of the night, we will know which seats are in the hands of which party. The gritty truth of our system is such that, no matter who your local candidate is, even if they are the most wonderful person on earth, you can't choose them on a local basis if they run for a party that has practises and policies you don't agree with. Individual candidates have no influence on overall party policy going in to an election. Even if they stand for radical change, the nature of our system of governance shuts that down the minute they are sworn in. I will also point out, for the most part, you are also not voting for the leader of any party. All parties are coalitions of diverse interests and party policy is driven by those who can get their particular issues and ideology on the plate. Your best bet to choose your vote during an election campaign is to examine the platform presented, and take time to look into the party policies, all of which should be readily availble to you on the internet. Keep in the top of your mind that platforms are a group of promises and not a binding contract, therefore any or all of said platform may or may not get enacted once a party is elected, due to any number of factors.

     So we get to the results. We'll end up with 308 MP's of a variety of political parties. That is a certainty. The parties will have standing in the house, based on the number of MP's elected under the party banner. This is also a certainty. To clear the air, a single party must attain 155 seats to gain a majority in the House of Commons. A majority, during this election, has been an issue. People would have you believe it is of utmost importance or society is in trouble, that's just a scare tactic. A majority simply means the ruling party has the ability to enact whatever legislation/agenda it wishes without fear of losing confidence of the house and needing approval from the populace. This often leads to parties enacting unpopular measures that seem to come out of nowhere. Since it never got mentioned in any campaign, you never had a choice to make up your mind on it, you're stuck with it, too bad, so sad. Yes I have a bias against majority government.

     Now we have our 308 members, and we are clear what we get if we hand anyone a majority of seats in the house. It will take a little longer to discuss the possibilities if no party gets a majority, but hopefully, by the end, you'll understand why there is nothing scary about it. Hopefully it will help you vote the way you want without unfounded fears clouding your judgement.

     For the purposes of this lesson, all we need to know is that no single party has been able to attain the 155 seats required. This means the majority of seats in the House of commons belong to parties other than the one who got the most seats. So we have a minority parliament, nothing new.

     At this point, protocol dictates the party with the greatest number of seats is invited to form a government and to attempt to gain the confidence of parliament. The Government will choose a cabinet and prepare a "speech from the throne", essentially a summary of the agenda of the government. Generally, you wouldn't expect the government to fall on a throne speech, although the possibility exists. The first major test of a government would be their budget. This would be the most likley point where a government would be unable to gain the confidence of the house. We'll explore those options shortly.

     Minority governments, to function effectively, must rely on cooperation and compromise. The sole reason we've gone to the polls so often in the last few years is directly related to Stephen Harper's notion he can govern as if he had a majority when the reality was otherwise. When one wishes to lead a minority government, one must come to terms with the "blunting" of their agenda. One must be able to find enough common ground with the majority opposition to continue the business of the goverment in an uniterrupted fashion, even if it means toning down or scrapping those things that can and will not be tolerated by the majority of the house.

     Suffice to say, should Stephen Harper gain a minority government once again in the coming election, unless he changes the attitude he has had and has continued to exhibit throughout the campaign, he will be unable to hold the confidence of the house for any length of time. So what happens at that point?

     This, under the legitimate process set out under the laws and constitution of our country, opens options. It does not mean we have to go back to the polls, that is but one of the options. Should an elected minority government be unable to maintain the confidence of the house, the next step should rightly be, and we should demand it, that the governer general invite the leader of the official opposition to attempt to form a government. Once this invitation is extended, the opposition leader can proceed in one of two ways. He can accept the offer prima facie and attempt to govern without any formal cooperation agreement with the other parties in the house. When this option is selected, it becomes incumbent upon the new Prime Minister to find a way to get enough of the opposition to support any future confidence motions going forward, most notably, they will probably need to make budget concessions in order to secure enough votes to move forward. I must also stress, they need only have support for legislation that are matters of confidence, the majority of which are spending bills. Other legislation can pass or fail on its own merits without the risk of the government falling once a week.

     The second option has been the boogeyman of this election, the coalition. Nothing evil about it, just another form of cooperation, although it formalizes a cooperation agreement in the house. The difference you would see is in the makeup of Cabinet itself. As a trade off for their support, in a coalition, parties will insist on seats at the cabinet table where decisions are made. It kind of like having a team government rather than a single ruling entity.

     The thing about the second option is it really requires hard work and cooperation/concilliation. In order for it to work, as with any other group dynamic, the parties have to concentrate on agreement. In a majority, everything gets rammed through and you have no say whatsoever until the next election, and a lot of bad things can happen in 4 or 5 years.

     I hope this has been somewhat informative to you. Again I encourage you to get out and vote, it's the only voice you have. There is nothing to be scared of, but as always, I encourage you to look deeper as there is always a bigger picture.